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Anatomy of a game

Discussion in 'Strategy Guides' started by Madness, Oct 27, 2017.

  1. Madness

    Madness Member

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    THIS IS A WORK IN PROGRESS... I will continually add to this thread as I gather more data.

    I wanted to take some time to evaluate what the main factors that set apart winning teams from losing teams using statistics. I pulled all game data from patch 1.55 on 10/27. (I did a random sampling using only ranked games).


    Lets start with some base numbers:

    Average Game Length = 27.5 minutes (rounded to the nearest minute in my data)
    Average Game Ending Wave = 15.5

    Now the numbers for the winning teams:
    Workers: 13.14
    Income: 426.47
    Value: 3492.57
    Kills: 183.92
    Leaks: 11.85

    Now the numbers for the losing teams:
    Workers: 10.5
    Income: 342.71
    Value: 3290.79
    Kills: 176.29
    Leaks: 24.43

    Now the differences:
    Winning teams had on average:
    2.64 more workers (25% more)
    83.85 more income (25% more)
    201.78 more value (6% more)
    7.64 more kills (4% more)
    12 less leaks (51% less leaks)



    TLDR;
    Probably not surprising to those who are already experts but workers and income play a large role in whether your team wins or loses, as well as the number of leaks (probably a result of more workers/income)



    P.S. if theres' a better way than manually typing these I would be more likely to do more in-depth analysis given a larger sample size. Would prefer a data dump I can play with in excel if possible.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2017
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  2. Madness

    Madness Member

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    Was able to spend a little time looking at game ending waves today. I used a random sampling of only ranked games (ELO games) from today 11-6.

    Here are some fun facts:

    • Did you know that only 5 % of games end before wave 12 (and only 8% before wave 13)
    • Did you know that only 7% of games make it to wave 20
    • Did you know that wave in which games end on the most is wave 17 (with 20% of games ending on this wave)
    • Did you know that 70% of games end on waves 13-17
    Here is a quick and dirty graph that shows the wave across the bottom, and the % of games that end on that wave (apologies for the ugliness I don't have time to make it pretty today)

    [​IMG]



    TLDR; Don't try to win before wave 12, try not to lose on waves 13-17 (or try to win), and don't expect to get to wave 20 very often
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2017
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  3. Jules

    Jules Developer Staff Member

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    Thanks for sharing, Madness! It's interesting and valuable to look at data, but as I like to say: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." I think there are different ways to interpret this data.
    This data tells you how players are currently behaving/what the meta is, not necessarily how you should behave/what optimal play is.

    For example, I've found that in a lot of my games, players start saving after wave 10 to send on 13 or 14. As a counter-strategy, I've had a lot of success saving after wave 10 (or 9 if you're confident you can clear 10) to send on 12. Usually, the opposing team is undervalued because they pushed workers after 10 and have been saving, so they are vulnerable to wave 12.
     
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  4. Madness

    Madness Member

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    @Jules Agreed.

    This post is meant only as a snapshot in time, with new releases/balances these numbers will change over time (as someone was mentioning on discord in a prior version we may have observed a spike in games ending on wave 8 for example).

    In hindsight my TLDR was a little hastily thrown in.

    An average player will see these stats and push waves 14 and 17 and will probably do just fine. An above average player (is Jules above average?) will look at these numbers and take it a step further and counter the meta of waves 14 and 17. Either way I think having the data available to make more informed decisions is always good, and I personally find the "did you knows" interesting if nothing else.
     
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  5. Mosl

    Mosl Member

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    I find this very intresting, I like data-analysis, may I know where you gather that data?
     
  6. holepercent

    holepercent Member

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    Game stats are posted in #game_results on ltd2 discord.
     
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  7. Madness

    Madness Member

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    This ^^

    I'm currently hand typing from that feed into my spreadsheets for some numbers crunching.
     
  8. Rozwel

    Rozwel Member

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    I said about week ago that most games end 14-18 so i was close to correct answer.
    And this statistics say why mech is weaker legion in current meta.
     
  9. Madness

    Madness Member

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    For the latest installment of Anatomy of a Game I again looked at a sampling of ranked games from 11/9 (post King/Collision/Brute changes)

    Some interesting observations:

    • Games have the potential to be ended earlier (previously average game went 15.5 Waves, now 13.4)
    • In this sampling not a single game made it to wave 20 or 21 (and only 4% made it past wave 16)
    • Wave 17 now has 1% of games ending on this wave (down from being the highest at 20%)
    • We have a new wave on the block (in terms of games ending) (Spoiler alert: It's 13!)
    • In this sampling only 2% of games cross was used (with a 0% win rate I may add)
    • okok heres the graph pr0n
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. GvR Mr Mister

    GvR Mr Mister Member

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    Some statistics of today:

    Code:
    Total ranked games: 72
    Total custom games (ignored below): 185
    Total players: 576
    Avg gametime: 22,6453703703704
    Avg level at game end: 13,1805555555556
    Wins West: 43(59,7222222222222%)
    Wins East: 29(40,2777777777778%)
    Element picks: 88(15,2777777777778%)
    Grove picks: 69(11,9791666666667%)
    Mech picks: 64(11,1111111111111%)
    Forsaken picks: 60(10,4166666666667%)
    Mastermind picks: 295(51,2152777777778%)
    Element wins: 45(51,1363636363636%)
    Grove wins: 35(50,7246376811594%)
    Mech wins: 36(56,25%)
    Forsaken wins: 34(56,6666666666667%)
    Mastermind wins: 138(46,7796610169492%)
    Games ended on 7: 2(2,77777777777778%)
    Games ended on 8: 1(1,38888888888889%)
    Games ended on 9: 1(1,38888888888889%)
    Games ended on 11: 4(5,55555555555556%)
    Games ended on 12: 7(9,72222222222222%)
    Games ended on 13: 36(50%)
    Games ended on 14: 8(11,1111111111111%)
    Games ended on 15: 2(2,77777777777778%)
    Games ended on 16: 8(11,1111111111111%)
    Games ended on 17: 2(2,77777777777778%)
    Games ended on 18: 1(1,38888888888889%)
    Ele had 6 workers untill level 7 on avg
    Ele had 105 income untill level 7 on avg
    Ele had 395 value untill level 7 on avg
    Ele had 45,5 kills untill level 7 on avg
    Ele had 13 leaks untill level 7 on avg
    Ele had 7 workers untill level 9 on avg
    Ele had 116 income untill level 9 on avg
    Ele had 990 value untill level 9 on avg
    Ele had 136 kills untill level 9 on avg
    Ele had 9 leaks untill level 9 on avg
    Ele had 8,5 workers untill level 11 on avg
    Ele had 210 income untill level 11 on avg
    Ele had 1522,5 value untill level 11 on avg
    Ele had 137 kills untill level 11 on avg
    Ele had 3 leaks untill level 11 on avg
    Ele had 8,125 workers untill level 12 on avg
    Ele had 193,375 income untill level 12 on avg
    Ele had 1802,5 value untill level 12 on avg
    Ele had 147,625 kills untill level 12 on avg
    Ele had 9 leaks untill level 12 on avg
    Ele had 9,35 workers untill level 13 on avg
    Ele had 243,625 income untill level 13 on avg
    Ele had 2035,25 value untill level 13 on avg
    Ele had 146,675 kills untill level 13 on avg
    Ele had 12,325 leaks untill level 13 on avg
    Ele had 10,0666666666667 workers untill level 14 on avg
    Ele had 286,666666666667 income untill level 14 on avg
    Ele had 2388 value untill level 14 on avg
    Ele had 162,866666666667 kills untill level 14 on avg
    Ele had 11,8666666666667 leaks untill level 14 on avg
    Ele had 10,5 workers untill level 15 on avg
    Ele had 322 income untill level 15 on avg
    Ele had 2740 value untill level 15 on avg
    Ele had 153 kills untill level 15 on avg
    Ele had 28 leaks untill level 15 on avg
    Ele had 11,6666666666667 workers untill level 16 on avg
    Ele had 371 income untill level 16 on avg
    Ele had 3411,25 value untill level 16 on avg
    Ele had 192,666666666667 kills untill level 16 on avg
    Ele had 16,9166666666667 leaks untill level 16 on avg
    Ele had 14,3333333333333 workers untill level 17 on avg
    Ele had 556,333333333333 income untill level 17 on avg
    Ele had 4015 value untill level 17 on avg
    Ele had 153,333333333333 kills untill level 17 on avg
    Ele had 68 leaks untill level 17 on avg
    Ele had 12 workers untill level 18 on avg
    Ele had 435 income untill level 18 on avg
    Ele had 4326,66666666667 value untill level 18 on avg
    Ele had 203 kills untill level 18 on avg
    Ele had 30 leaks untill level 18 on avg
    grove had 3,33333333333333 workers untill level 7 on avg
    grove had 62 income untill level 7 on avg
    grove had 935 value untill level 7 on avg
    grove had 87 kills untill level 7 on avg
    grove had 28 leaks untill level 7 on avg
    grove had 8,5 workers untill level 9 on avg
    grove had 194,5 income untill level 9 on avg
    grove had 25 leaks untill level 9 on avg
    grove had 8,2 workers untill level 11 on avg
    grove had 176,8 income untill level 11 on avg
    grove had 1434 value untill level 11 on avg
    grove had 130,4 kills untill level 11 on avg
    grove had 10,4 leaks untill level 11 on avg
    grove had 8,28571428571429 workers untill level 12 on avg
    grove had 202,857142857143 income untill level 12 on avg
    grove had 1683,57142857143 value untill level 12 on avg
    grove had 136,714285714286 kills untill level 12 on avg
    grove had 12,5714285714286 leaks untill level 12 on avg
    grove had 8,80645161290323 workers untill level 13 on avg
    grove had 240,129032258065 income untill level 13 on avg
    grove had 2098,06451612903 value untill level 13 on avg
    grove had 146,161290322581 kills untill level 13 on avg
    grove had 10,9354838709677 leaks untill level 13 on avg
    grove had 9,25 workers untill level 14 on avg
    grove had 283,25 income untill level 14 on avg
    grove had 2421,25 value untill level 14 on avg
    grove had 145,75 kills untill level 14 on avg
    grove had 12,625 leaks untill level 14 on avg
    grove had 10,25 workers untill level 15 on avg
    grove had 354,5 income untill level 15 on avg
    grove had 2987,5 value untill level 15 on avg
    grove had 166,25 kills untill level 15 on avg
    grove had 22,75 leaks untill level 15 on avg
    grove had 12,1428571428571 workers untill level 16 on avg
    grove had 394,714285714286 income untill level 16 on avg
    grove had 3386,42857142857 value untill level 16 on avg
    grove had 181,285714285714 kills untill level 16 on avg
    grove had 18,4285714285714 leaks untill level 16 on avg
    grove had 13,5 workers untill level 17 on avg
    grove had 505 income untill level 17 on avg
    grove had 4475 value untill level 17 on avg
    grove had 247,5 kills untill level 17 on avg
    grove had 13 leaks untill level 17 on avg
    mech had 5 workers untill level 7 on avg
    mech had 63 income untill level 7 on avg
    mech had 710 value untill level 7 on avg
    mech had 85 kills untill level 7 on avg
    mech had 6 leaks untill level 7 on avg
    mech had 4 workers untill level 8 on avg
    mech had 78 income untill level 8 on avg
    mech had 1005 value untill level 8 on avg
    mech had 106 kills untill level 8 on avg
    mech had 3 leaks untill level 8 on avg
    mech had 8 workers untill level 9 on avg
    mech had 128 income untill level 9 on avg
    mech had 1055 value untill level 9 on avg
    mech had 112 kills untill level 9 on avg
    mech had 8 leaks untill level 9 on avg
    mech had 7,33333333333333 workers untill level 11 on avg
    mech had 188,666666666667 income untill level 11 on avg
    mech had 2538,33333333333 value untill level 11 on avg
    mech had 232,666666666667 kills untill level 11 on avg
    mech had 14,3333333333333 leaks untill level 11 on avg
    mech had 8,83333333333333 workers untill level 12 on avg
    mech had 203,166666666667 income untill level 12 on avg
    mech had 1605,83333333333 value untill level 12 on avg
    mech had 137,166666666667 kills untill level 12 on avg
    mech had 10,6666666666667 leaks untill level 12 on avg
    mech had 9,07894736842105 workers untill level 13 on avg
    mech had 242,763157894737 income untill level 13 on avg
    mech had 2124,73684210526 value untill level 13 on avg
    mech had 151,710526315789 kills untill level 13 on avg
    mech had 12,2105263157895 leaks untill level 13 on avg
    mech had 10 workers untill level 14 on avg
    mech had 262,5 income untill level 14 on avg
    mech had 2463,75 value untill level 14 on avg
    mech had 163 kills untill level 14 on avg
    mech had 8,75 leaks untill level 14 on avg
    mech had 14,75 workers untill level 15 on avg
    mech had 471,25 income untill level 15 on avg
    mech had 3410 value untill level 15 on avg
    mech had 195,75 kills untill level 15 on avg
    mech had 13 leaks untill level 15 on avg
    mech had 12,4 workers untill level 16 on avg
    mech had 385,6 income untill level 16 on avg
    mech had 3918 value untill level 16 on avg
    mech had 236 kills untill level 16 on avg
    mech had 9,2 leaks untill level 16 on avg
    mech had 8 workers untill level 17 on avg
    mech had 236 income untill level 17 on avg
    mech had 3900 value untill level 17 on avg
    mech had 225 kills untill level 17 on avg
    forsaken had 5,66666666666667 workers untill level 7 on avg
    forsaken had 87 income untill level 7 on avg
    forsaken had 700 value untill level 7 on avg
    forsaken had 84 kills untill level 7 on avg
    forsaken had 8 workers untill level 9 on avg
    forsaken had 113 income untill level 9 on avg
    forsaken had 920 value untill level 9 on avg
    forsaken had 108 kills untill level 9 on avg
    forsaken had 5 leaks untill level 9 on avg
    forsaken had 9 workers untill level 11 on avg
    forsaken had 200,333333333333 income untill level 11 on avg
    forsaken had 1263,33333333333 value untill level 11 on avg
    forsaken had 99,3333333333333 kills untill level 11 on avg
    forsaken had 8,5 workers untill level 12 on avg
    forsaken had 230 income untill level 12 on avg
    forsaken had 1599,16666666667 value untill level 12 on avg
    forsaken had 126,333333333333 kills untill level 12 on avg
    forsaken had 14,6666666666667 leaks untill level 12 on avg
    forsaken had 9,20588235294118 workers untill level 13 on avg
    forsaken had 242,764705882353 income untill level 13 on avg
    forsaken had 2079,41176470588 value untill level 13 on avg
    forsaken had 145,705882352941 kills untill level 13 on avg
    forsaken had 8,83333333333333 workers untill level 14 on avg
    forsaken had 270 income untill level 14 on avg
    forsaken had 2707,5 value untill level 14 on avg
    forsaken had 174,333333333333 kills untill level 14 on avg
    forsaken had 16 leaks untill level 14 on avg
    forsaken had 14,5 workers untill level 15 on avg
    forsaken had 391,5 income untill level 15 on avg
    forsaken had 2340 value untill level 15 on avg
    forsaken had 116,5 kills untill level 15 on avg
    forsaken had 16 leaks untill level 15 on avg
    forsaken had 15 workers untill level 16 on avg
    forsaken had 584 income untill level 16 on avg
    forsaken had 1225 value untill level 16 on avg
    forsaken had 5 kills untill level 16 on avg
    forsaken had 77 leaks untill level 16 on avg
    forsaken had 13 workers untill level 17 on avg
    forsaken had 436 income untill level 17 on avg
    forsaken had 4042,5 value untill level 17 on avg
    forsaken had 203 kills untill level 17 on avg
    forsaken had 20,5 leaks untill level 17 on avg
    forsaken had 8 workers untill level 18 on avg
    forsaken had 352,5 income untill level 18 on avg
    forsaken had 4717,5 value untill level 18 on avg
    forsaken had 205 kills untill level 18 on avg
    forsaken had 34,5 leaks untill level 18 on avg
    mm had 6,28571428571429 workers untill level 7 on avg
    mm had 89,4285714285714 income untill level 7 on avg
    mm had 89,4285714285714 kills untill level 7 on avg
    mm had 9 leaks untill level 7 on avg
    mm had 5,42857142857143 workers untill level 8 on avg
    mm had 87,2857142857143 income untill level 8 on avg
    mm had 815,714285714286 value untill level 8 on avg
    mm had 93,2857142857143 kills untill level 8 on avg
    mm had 10,2857142857143 leaks untill level 8 on avg
    mm had 4 workers untill level 9 on avg
    mm had 64 income untill level 9 on avg
    mm had 1281,66666666667 value untill level 9 on avg
    mm had 131 kills untill level 9 on avg
    mm had 9,33333333333333 leaks untill level 9 on avg
    mm had 8,21052631578947 workers untill level 11 on avg
    mm had 185,210526315789 income untill level 11 on avg
    mm had 1311,84210526316 value untill level 11 on avg
    mm had 107,631578947368 kills untill level 11 on avg
    mm had 16 leaks untill level 11 on avg
    mm had 8,10344827586207 workers untill level 12 on avg
    mm had 180,137931034483 income untill level 12 on avg
    mm had 1694,48275862069 value untill level 12 on avg
    mm had 136,275862068966 kills untill level 12 on avg
    mm had 13,4137931034483 leaks untill level 12 on avg
    mm had 8,67586206896552 workers untill level 13 on avg
    mm had 230,434482758621 income untill level 13 on avg
    mm had 2052,24137931034 value untill level 13 on avg
    mm had 143,331034482759 kills untill level 13 on avg
    mm had 14,6344827586207 leaks untill level 13 on avg
    mm had 9,09677419354839 workers untill level 14 on avg
    mm had 260,516129032258 income untill level 14 on avg
    mm had 2354,67741935484 value untill level 14 on avg
    mm had 153,774193548387 kills untill level 14 on avg
    mm had 18,3225806451613 leaks untill level 14 on avg
    mm had 10,75 workers untill level 15 on avg
    mm had 347,5 income untill level 15 on avg
    mm had 3223,75 value untill level 15 on avg
    mm had 188,75 kills untill level 15 on avg
    mm had 12,75 leaks untill level 15 on avg
    mm had 11,4102564102564 workers untill level 16 on avg
    mm had 381,717948717949 income untill level 16 on avg
    mm had 3443,20512820513 value untill level 16 on avg
    mm had 182,692307692308 kills untill level 16 on avg
    mm had 21,1794871794872 leaks untill level 16 on avg
    mm had 11,625 workers untill level 17 on avg
    mm had 440,625 income untill level 17 on avg
    mm had 4176,875 value untill level 17 on avg
    mm had 207,875 kills untill level 17 on avg
    mm had 18,5 leaks untill level 17 on avg
    mm had 9 workers untill level 18 on avg
    mm had 400,333333333333 income untill level 18 on avg
    mm had 4613,33333333333 value untill level 18 on avg
    mm had 229,333333333333 kills untill level 18 on avg
    mm had 16,3333333333333 leaks untill level 18 on avg
    
    If you see any data that looks wrong, feel free to tell me :)